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NCAA Men’s Tennis Team Tournament R16 Recap and Quarterfinal Predictions

NCAA Men’s Tennis Team Tournament R16 Recap and Quarterfinal Predictions NCAA Men’s Tennis Team Tournament R16 Recap and Quarterfinal Predictions

Since my last update on the Division 1 Men's Tennis Team tournament, the regional semifinals have been completed and now we look forward to the quarterfinals full of heavyweights this evening. Looking in the back mirror for a brief moment, we saw the regional semifinal or “super regional” stage start with a bang, with fellow top ten teams Michigan and the University of Southern California, who faced off on Friday the 12th, while all the other matches were on Saturday the 13th. 

Top Left Region

UNC vs. The University of Texas 

The #16 seed University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Tar Heels were supposed to be a huge step up in talent and competition from the previous rounds  for the University of Texas Longhorns (Texas A&M Corpus-Christie and Pepperdine), but the Longhorns passed their next puzzle with flying colors; another 4-0 victory. Led by #1 singles player in the country and #3 in doubles, Elliot Spizzirri, the box score was flowing with UT wins. In fact, the Tar Heels did not have a single completed win on the score sheet. 

On the other hand, the Texas talent is undeniable. Spizzirri has flirted with the professional levels in the past, and has actually had some success. In August of 2021, he won a M25 tournament in Decatur Illinois. This tournament win landed him a wild-card entry into the US Open qualification draw a few weeks later, where he won his first match against Alejando Tabilo in three sets as a +450 underdog and then got knocked out in the second round of quali's by another seasoned tour player Henri Laaksonen in a tight three setter. Tabilo has been as high as number 64 in the world and Laaksonen who has been as high as number 84 in the world a few months later in February of 2022. He played another M25 back home in Austin Texas, where he made the semifinals, and hasn't played on the tour at any level since that tournament in November of 2021.

Related: Serving Up College Tennis Coverage: NCAA Men's Tennis Team Tournament Rounds 1 and 2 Recap Plus Super Regional Predictions

Back to last Saturday–Spizzirri won his doubles match with partner Cleeve Harper in a straightforward 6-3 set. In his singles match, Elliot won the first set 6-4 and was down in the second set breaker 3-5 to #43 in the country Brian Cernoch, but the match was unfinished. The Longhorns are not top heavy, as all of their ranked singles players (4 of 6) are all in the top 61 in the country. #28 Pierre-Yves Bailly won his first set breaker 8-6 and then was up 5-2 in the second set before the match was deemed unfinished as well (Texas hit the 4 match wins needed to advance before the match was completed). Other ranked players: #61 Micah Braswell beat Will Jansen 6-3  6-3 and #54 Siem Woldeab beat Karl Poling 6-4, 7-6 (7-1). Spizzirri's doubles partner, Cleeve Harper won his singles match in straight sets (6-4 6-4) and the other Longhorn doubles team of Pierre-Yves Bailly and Siem Woldeab bageled their opponent 6-0. 

Tennessee vs. South Carolina

The #8 vs #9 matchup on paper would assume to be more tight of a result, and indeed it was. In my last update I predicted a neutral court win for the Tenessee Volunteers after they had a decisive win on the road against South Carolina a little earlier in the season. My prediction was wrong, as the Gamecocks won 4-2. However, the boxscore has some pretty interesting tidbits. For starters, the Gamecocks have found themselves in the top ten in the national rankings as a team without a ranked singles player or doubles team. The ranked singles players for the Volunteers are very spread out on the list: #5 Johannus Monday, #31 Emile Hudd, and #117 Shunsuke Mistui. Monday was the only one not to lose as his match went unfinished in the third set. The unranked players from Columbia slightly edged out the boys from Knoxville in both the singles and doubles in finished matches and scraped by. I was wrong in my prediction of the past matchup for the Gamecocks, but this time I am still going against them. Spiizzrri and Co. are too talented to lose to a whole group of unranked singles players, but it won't be easy. I predict a win for the Longhorns but not a clean sweep, perhaps 4-1 Texas at a neutral location (United States Tennis Association campus in Orlando Florida).  

Related: Rate the University of Tennessee-Knoxville

Top Right Region

Ohio State vs. Arizona

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the powerhouse in this area of the draw, and their last match was tighter than they probably would have hoped for. Nevertheless, a 4-2 over #14 Arizona is not a bad result by any stretch of the imagination. As the box score indicates, the singles matches were very competitive, but on the other hand, doubles were dominated by the buckeyes. OSU won both of the finished matches, with the #21 doubles pair of Robert Cash and Justin Boulais beat the 70th ranked pair of Jonas Ziverts and Jay Friend 6-3, while the unranked pair of ranked singles players Cannon Kinglsey and JJ Tracy won their match 6-3 against Gustaf Strom and Eric Padgham as well. Kingley, the #11 ranked singles player in the nation beat Jonas Ziverts from the other doubles match in three sets while #22 Tracy played #114 Strom for the second time and JJ came ahead in three sets as well. The two points for the Arizona Wildcats were individual upsets as well. #55 Colton Smith of the Cats beat #24 Justin Boulais in straits (6-4, 7-5) and unranked wildcat (in singles) Jay Friend defeated  #41 Alexander Bernard in straight sets as well (6-1, 6-4). 

Georgia vs Harvard

On the bottom part of this region, was the matchup between the #6 Georgia Bulldogs and #11 Harvard Crimson. The Bulldogs edged by 4-2 at home at the Dan Magill Tennis Center in Athens Georgia. Harvard won a few matches, particularly in singles where they had a few upsets. #35 Henry Von der Schulenberg beat #19 Phillip Henning in a dominant 6-2 6-1 fashion. Unranked Daniel Milavsky also beat #113 Trent Bryde in straight sets (6-2, 6-4). Georgia did pick up the other matches however with three completed wins and a lead in the third set in the unfinished match. 

Related: Pro Tennis Player Kristie Ahn's Advice on Academics, Recruiting, and More

The Bulldogs were led by the second best player in the country (only behind Spizzirri of Texas) who won his match against #37 Harris Walker in a tight first set breaker and then a dominant 6-1 second set. Just like Spizzirri, Quinn has dabbled with the pro level and actually has an ATP Ranking of 513. As recently as mid June of 2022, Quinn won a M15 event on hard courts in San Diego and then won an M25 in Champaign Illinois at the end of last July. He then got a bid in the US Open qualification draw where he beat in three sets before falling to ATP tour veteran and seasoned clay courter Federico Delbonis. After the Open, Ethan moved on to challenger level tournaments where he played notable players such as Aussie veteran and recent breakout star and recent Florida Gator Alum Ben Shelton. In terms of my prediction for tomorrow, I believe Ethan Quinn and his teammates come up short against the Buckeyes who also have more talent on the singles side. I say 4-2 Ohio State on the neutral courts at the USTA campus. 

Bottom Right Region

USC vs. Michigan 

The only match last Friday also played out to be one of the most competitive as the Wolverines defended their home court in Ann Arbor–but as I said, the defense was shaky, as the scoreline was 4-3. The shakiness came on the singles side of things, as Michigan roasted USC in this department although their 5-2 lead in the third match was deemed unfinished. On the singles side, unranked led an offensive for the Trojans. This is where things get interesting, as Tien plays in the number two singles slot and is unranked nationally, but at the same time is a name that people who follow the ATP tour have heard of. 

Related: Rate the University of Michigan

Learner Tien won a set in last year's US Open against an ATP top 35 player in Miomir Kecmanovic who made it to the final of Estoril in April before losing to world number 4 Casper Ruud. Additionally, Tien made it to the final of the Australian Open boys tournament, before losing in a grueling third set breaker (11-9). Learner has also gotten bids to the qualifications of both Sunshine Double events where he lost in straight sets in Indian Wells to who has regained his form in 2023 so far, and then nicked a set against Jan-Lennard Struff in the Miami Qualis. Struff just last week made it to the final of the Madrid Masters, only losing to world #1 Carlos Alcaraz, and his ranking has skyrocketed to the top 25 at 31 years of age. Tien won his match against #44 Patrick Maloney in straights while teammates: #109 Wotjek Marek and unranked Lodewijk Westrate also won in straight sets giving the Trojans their quick 3 on the scoreboard. Unfortunately the Wolverines got three singles wins as well, led by Michigan's #8 Ondrej Styler. The doubles victories proved to be the difference in this one, as singles was as even as even could get. 

The bottom half of this region's draw features the second best team in the country: The Texas Christian Horned Frogs. Just like the other Texas Powerhouse, the Horned Frogs wanted to replicate the Longhorns' success of 3 straight sweeps but came up the slightest bit shy with their 4-1 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs at the Bayard H. Friedman Tennis Center in Fort Worth. Unlike the Trojan-Wolverine matchup, this faceoff wasn't really close and the box score indicates it. In fact, I think the Mississippi State Bulldogs should be happy they didn't get swept. TCU got both finished doubles matches, and only lost one singles match. That singles match was upset stirred by #120 Carles Hernandez who beat #62 Sander Jong 6-3, 7-5. The best player for the Horned Frogs: #21 who beat #78 Nemanja Malesevic 6-3, 6-3. Fearnley is also part of the #2 doubles team in the country with Luc Fomba who actually had the unfinished doubles match. Looking to Thursday, I think the MIchigan Wolverines are talented to grab a point from both the singles and doubles competitions but overall will be outmatched from top to bottom. I predict a 4-2 win for the TCU Horned Frogs. 

Bottom Left Region

Virginia vs. Duke

The defending champions of this team tournament keeps rolling, as the #5 Virginia Cavaliers have now won another round in this tournament 4-0, and this time the victim was the #12 Duke Blue Devils. I guess the classic 12-5 upset only pertains to basketball! Just like the Texas schools, the box score told a dominant story. The Cavaliers quickly got two doubles on the board with the pair of  Inaki Montes and William Woodall beating Garrett Johns and Pedro Rodenas 6-3 and the pair of Ryan Goetz and Alexander Kiefer beating and Niroop Vallabhaneni 6-4. Singles was just as non-competitive as this was the only matchup I saw where only three singles matches were needed for scoring, meaning the Cavaliers recorded their 3 wins at lightning speed. An interesting tidbit is all three wins came in straight sets and all three had first set breakers. Mans Dahlberg beat Faris Khan 7-6, 6-0, Jeffrey von der Schulenberg beat Andrew Zhang 7-6, 7-5 and Chris Rodesch beat Garrett Johns 7-6, 6-4. The Cavs are playing the part of a team looking to repeat. 

Kentucky vs. Stanford

The bottom part of this region is where things get interesting–I predicted that Kentucky would lose their match against Stanford, the only unseeded team in the super regionals. Kentucky, I believed, was not playing good enough tennis as the fourth best team in the country, as they only beat Northwestern 4-3 in the second round and Stanford was hot off the only team upset in this tournament when they beat #13 seed Columbia. Even though I was wrong about the upset, boy was I close as the Kentucky Wildcats thinly scraped by the Stanford Cardinal with a close 4-3 finish at the Boone Tennis Complex in Lexington Kentucky. Stanford got both of the finished doubles matches with 6-2 score lines. Aryan Chaudhary and Filip Kolasinski beat Taha Baadi and Christophe Clement, while Nishesh Basavareddy and Neel Rajesh defeated Liam Draxl and Jaden Weekes. 

Related: Daily Grind: Former Monmouth Tennis Star Nicole Gasser

The Cardinal strove for that same momentum on the singles side as the Stanford Cardinal are led by singles #3 Arthur Fery. Fery, just like his fellow top 3 players in Spizzirri, Quinn and outsider Learner Tien, has tour level experience. In the last week of July 2022, he won the M25 Nottingham 5 on grass. Then, in the first week of October he won an M25 on indoor hard courts in Sheffield, United Kingdom. In his only tournament in 2023 (early January so between the school semesters) he won an M25 in Malibu where he actually beat Learner Tien in the semis, before beating rising challenger star in the final. These three ITF level tournament wins have earned him an ATP ranking of 424. Fery fulfilled his part of the bargain, winning his match in straight sets against #13 Liam Draxl. Unfortunately, Stanford only got one more singles win with unranked Filip Kolasinski beating also unranked Jaden Weekes in straight sets as well. The Wildcats got all four of their points from the singles side, as all six matches were needed for scoring. The Wildcats have now won two straight matches 4-3 and last time I said it would come back to bite them, and now I am going to double down. The defending champions will make it to the semi-finals. I predict the Virginia Cavaliers win in semi-dominant fashion 4-1. 

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Image Credit: Photo by Manuela Davies/USTA

* Originally published on May 18, 2023, by AJ Rosenberg

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