We are officially in the second week of Men's March Madness and it has been wildly unpredictable thus far. Only four out of the eight #1 and #2 seeds are left, and, #15 Princeton continues dancing. Things have gotten off to an interesting start and the tournament is anyone's for the taking. Predicting brackets is risky this year, but here are my predictions for each of the four games for Thursday.
East Region
#3 Kansas State vs. #7 Michigan State
Thursday, March 23, 2023 – 6:30 P.M.
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
The Kentucky Wildcats gave the Kansas State Wildcats a run for their money in a Round of 32 catfight. UK came oh so close until Kansas State came to life in the second half on the heels of star senior guard Markquis Nowell and senior forward Keyontae Johnson.
The Wildcats are a team that are able to dominate on the scoresheet, as seen by the three players on their roster averaging double figure points.
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Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans are back in the Sweet 16 for the 15th time ever under his tenure. Led by senior guard Tyson Walker and senior forward Joey Hauser the Spartans are a battle tested team with their most recent win over #2 Marquette. The scariest part of that win was that they went 2 for 16 from three and still won by nine. The Spartans are playing some really strong defense and have only allowed 70 points in one of their last five games.
This is a total toss-up in my opinion. I would usually favor coaching and experience in Michigan State, a team that has become dominant in March, but I believe Kansas State will narrowly escape the Spartans on the heels of guard Markquis Nowell, who will take control of the game in the last three minutes, just as he has done all season.
Prediction: Kansas State 74 Michigan State 69
#4 Tennessee vs. #9 FAU
Thursday, March 23, 2023 – 6:30 P.M.
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Rick Barnes's Tennessee defense is playing well at the right time. The Vols had one of the top defenses in the regular season, holding teams to a paltry 57.8 PPG. They opened the season 18-3 most notably for that reason. The Vols defense is playing very similarly right now after limiting a very dangerous Duke team to just 52 points, its lowest scoring output of the season.
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Although sophomore guard Zakai Ziegler is injured, the Vols have been getting great play from senior guard Santiago Vescovi and senior forward Olivier Nkamhoua, who scored a season high 27 points in the win against Duke.
On the other side are the Florida Atlantic Owls who are looking to make the Elite 8 for their first time ever. The Owls are quite a capable team with a current record of 33-3. Led by sophomore guard Johnell Davis, FAU is one of the best offensive teams averaging 78.4 PPG, while only surrendering 65.1 PPG. In their round of 64 game they limited a hot and capable Memphis team to just 65 points.
The key in this game might be the defense–while sophomore guard Johnell Davis and the Owls are more than capable of taking this game over, the Vols' recent defensive success is something to keep an eye on.
Then again, it's March Madness. With that being said, I'm thinking that the Owls, winners of nine straight, will continue their magical season upsetting the Vols by six.
Prediction: Tennessee 63 FAU 69
West Region
#4 UConn vs. #8 Arkansas
Thursday, March 23, 2023 – 7:15 P.M.
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
UConn has been on fire from three point range. The Huskies are shooting 44.75% from three in their two tournament games–that's over 8% better than their regular season average.The Huskies are led by a trio of double digit scorers in junior forward Adama Sanogo, sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins and senior guard Tristen Newton. Sanogo has averaged 26 PPG in the two tournament games and the Huskies have won by an average of 19.5 points. On the defensive side UConn has played exceptionally well, out-rebounding their opponent by at least nine rebounds in both tournament games.
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On the other side is Arkansas, who is looking to make the Elite 8 for the third consecutive year behind coach Eric Musselman. Led by star junior guard, Ricky Council IV, the Razorbacks are coming off an upset win against #1 seed Kansas in which junior guard Davonte Davis poured in 21 in the second half. Just like the Huskies, the Razorbacks are a well-balanced and quite talented team.
I believe this game will be back and forth throughout, but the thing to keep an eye on will be the Huskies' three point shooting. That'll be the game-changer and I'm taking the Huskies by 7.
Prediction: UConn 78 Arkansas 71
#2 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga
Thursday, March 23, 2023 – 9:45 P.M.
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Well, well, well. These two meet again.
The last time UCLA and Gonzaga met in March Madness, Gonzaga's stud point guard Jalen Suggs hit a half-court buzzer beater to lead the Bulldogs to a championship game and keep the perfect season alive against #11 UCLA in a 93-90 OT victory.
That was back in 2021–since then, UCLA and Gonzaga have remained two of the best college basketball teams in the country. But tons of players have stuck around since then. Still with the Bruins from that 2021 team are star senior guard Jaime Jaquez Jr, senior guard Tyger Campbell, senior guard David Singleton, and junior guard Jaylen Clark, who is injured and will be missing the game.
The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams yielding just 60.2 PPG and in the tournament, they've given up an average of 58 PPG. On the reverse side of the ball, Jamie Jaquez is the leader of this squad, averaging 17.5 PPG. they've been shooting quite well, averaging 52% FGS. They are winners of 14 of their last 15 and playing perhaps the best ball all season.
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Then there's Mark Few's Gonzaga Bulldogs, who happen to be in familiar territory. The Bulldogs are looking to make it to the Elite 8 for the fifth time in the last eight years. This team is led by one of college basketball's best in senior forward Drew Timme. This season, the all-time leading Gonzaga scorer has averaged 21.1 PPG on over 60% shooting. And while Timme might be the leader of the team, Gonzaga possesses depth from all over. The Bulldogs, who score the most PPG in college basketball (87.5), have three other double digit scorers.
They shoot the ball remarkably well (#1 in FG percentage) and are top three in points differential.
However, UCLA is fourth–like the 2021 Final Four thriller this should be quite an exciting game to watch. Gonzaga's defense has been of concern recently, and I think UCLA will be able to exploit this. While Gonzaga has the ability to drop 80 points on you, I see UCLA's defense being the difference. The key will be defending Drew Timme in the paint.
I see the Bruins doing just enough escaping in a four point thriller.
Prediction: UCLA 77 Gonzaga 73
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* Originally published on March 20, 2023, by Nicholas Nathanson
