The end of the Sunshine Double can only mean one thing for tennis fans around the world–the clay season is officially upon us. 

This is the time of year when we escape the cold weather locations around the world and get to the heart of tennis royalty and outdoor beauty: The Monte Carlo Masters. There is arguably no event on the annual schedule that holds vistas as stunning and pure, as multiple stadium courts around the Monte Carlo Country Club have views of not only the fresh red dirt of the clay courts, but also the sparkling Mediterranean Sea. As the first Masters 1000 event held in a five-week span, this is the first week of the year where the big names in tennis make the surface switch from the hard courts and test their skills on the road to Roland Garros (The French Open). 

For just south of 20 years, this is where the dominance of the “King of Clay” Rafael Nadal comes into play. Since coming onto the tennis scene in 2005, he has won in Monte Carlo 11 times: eight straight years between 2005 and 2012 and then three straight years between 2016 and 2018. His success at the largest clay court events in the world doesn't stop here, as he has lifted the trophy at the Foro Italico in Rome ten times as well, and as recently as 2021. 

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While both of these statistics are absurd–most good tennis players would settle for 10 or 11 titles throughout an entire career, let alone a single location on the tour–nothing holds up to the fact that Nadal has won the French Open 14 times. Swiss legend Roger Federer has 1 title during the tenure of Nadal (2009), another Swiss legend Stan Wawrinka grabbed one in 2015, and Novak Djokovic grabbed two (2016 and 2021). In the comparison of above-average players settling for double-digit titles in a career to a single tournament for Rafa, in hindsight, this is even larger as most of the new generation of exceptional talent (some being on tour for six or seven years already) doesn't have a single grand slam title to their name and Nadal has 14 at the French Open alone. 

In recent memory, however, it has been a different Spaniard who has dominated the dirt all over Europe. World number 2 Carlos Alcaraz took the world by storm in 2022, showing everyone what he is truly capable of. In the unofficial clay swing in February of last year, the teen tennis star won his first 500-level tournament in Rio De Janeiro and then went on to win Miami last year which may have played a part in him losing in the first round of Monte Carlo, to the future of American Tennis and young star Sebastian Korda. After that loss to Korda, Alcaraz went on to win 14 matches in a row, taking home two different home titles (500 Barcelona and the Madrid Masters). He won 4 matches at the French Open before falling to in-form Alexander Zverev who he beat in the Madrid final and also got revenge on Korda, beating him 3-0 in their Round of 32 match. After the French Open, Alcaraz played in both Hamburg and Umag, losing in the final of both to Lorenzo Mussetti and Jannik Sinner respectively. It was a tough way to end the clay season, as Carlos lifted his first trophy ever in Umag in 2021. 

Fast Forward to Monte Carlo 2023, where the season already has a strange feel to it. Why? Because both Spaniards are injured and currently not playing. Fortunately for everyone, Barcelona is next week and both are in the draw, but neither of them in the draw for such an iconic event this week has me thinking: Who can make a name for themselves in the 2023 clay season, and who can re-emerge as well? 

ATP 9: Holger Rune

While the whole tennis world has begun a conversation of a new Federer-Nadal or Nadal-Djokovic type rivalries in what they have seen so far from Carlos Alcaraz and World number 8 Jannik Sinner, the interesting part is that just like Carlos, the Danish star Rune hasn't celebrated his 20th birthday yet. In other words, there is another teenager in the top ten of the rankings who has exceptional talent, if not at the same level of Alcaraz. Just like the Spaniard, Holger is the perfect combination of technique, athletic ability and jaw-dropping power. On the other hand, the one large difference between them comes from their mindset, as Holger loses his cool very often in matches and tends to self-destruct. 

Passion and competitiveness is the root of these displays, as Holger is a perfectionist, but it has gotten the best of him and has attracted a big name (tennis bad boy Nick Kyrgios) to take him under his wing. Holger has shown he has the talent to take out the best, as he won the last event of the 2022 season (the Paris Masters), beating Djokovic in a storied final. In fact, Holger's run to the title is regarded as one of the best runs in a long time, as he went through a murderer's row. In six straight days, he beat Swiss legend Stan Wawrinka, world number 13 Hubert Hurkacz, world number 6 Andrey Rublev, World number 2 Carlos Alcaraz, World number 7 Felix Auger-Alliasime, and World number 1 Novak Djokovic. At that time, Hubert Hurkacz was number 10 in the world, so Holger beat 5 top ten players in a row. 

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Now as we sit here in the 2023 clay season, opportunities are endless for the teenager–Holger won only one match at Monte-Carlo last season, so has virtually no points to defend. Rune arguably suffered from fatigue, as one of the great stories is him playing the first round of qualifying here in Monte-Carlo last year, on the same day as him winning a challenger title in Italy. As it currently stands, a title here would boost him to number 6 in the world with two more Masters events and a 500 on deck where he had poor results last year. With that being said, the only real points he needs to defend are quarter-finals points from Roland Garros and a 250 title in Munich (his first), so I predict a big jump in the rankings for Holger Rune by the end of the French Open. 

ATP 16: Alexander Zverev

Alexander “Sascha” Zverev was the third-best player in the world at the start of the 2022 French Open before he suffered a gruesome leg injury in the Semi-finals against the king of clay Rafael Nadal (in a second set tie-breaker that he looked poised to win). Fast forward nine months and Alex has dropped only 13 spots in the rankings after missing the entire second half of the 2022 season which is a testament to how many ranking points he had in the first place.

Zverev is currently staging his comeback from injury, but he is showing positive signs of progress–not only has he been winning more and more matches in every tournament he has played in in the past few months, but his serving and full-court game is looking more and more like his old self every day. Zverev made the semi-finals in Dubai after winning three straight and unfortunately had to play Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells, where he fell in an intense three-set match. I believe that Zverev will continue to get better and better in every tournament he plays. 

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The interesting thing about Zverev is that from afar you would expect his game to be suited for hard courts with the big serving and massive groundstrokes, but actually, he does very well on the clay and that is due to his great movement for a man that is 6 ‘6. Zverev just finished his second match in Monte Carlo today beating in straight sets all-courter and arguably one of the most consistent players on tour: Roberto Bautista Agut. He will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Daniil Medvedev which is a favorable upcoming match either way due to his superior ability against Sonego and Medvedev's hatred of the surface and extremely poor clay results for a player of his caliber. 

Zverev has semi-final points to defend here, but the good news is that a title would bring him back to the top ten and most importantly give him much-needed confidence for the entire swing that requires almost endless points for him to defend. Other than making the Semi-finals in the French Open and Monte-Carlo, he made the final in Madrid and the Semis in Rome as well. Yes, he had an absolutely stunning clay season last year–almost as good as Carlos Alcaraz, but his form and fitness need to be prime to climb back to the top. The good news is that next week the German is playing the 250 in Munich where he has no points to defend as Holger should be his only competition. As Zverev is getting better every match, the top five is not beyond his reach if he can replicate the level he was displaying 11 months ago and can add a few pieces of metal to his trophy case. 

ATP 21: Lorenzo Mussetti

Last but not least, the 21-year-old Italian Lorenzo Mussetti is another next-generation player who is destined for the top. Lorenzo won two titles in 2022, the first title being a 500 on clay in Hamburg where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final. He also went 21-7 (75% win rate) on the surface in ‘22. The move to European clay is going to do wonders for the mind of Musetti as his 2023 has been quite atrocious so far. After winning his first match in Buenos Aires, he lost five straight matches throughout the golden triangle (South American clay swing) and Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami). 

Since the start of Monte Carlo alone, Mussetti is arguably playing the best in the tournament, and maybe the home fans (being so close to the Italian border) is also helping. On Tuesday, he beat last week's finalist in Estoril Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets. The first set was tight as it went to a tiebreaker, but he bageled (6-0 in games) in the second set. This morning he played fellow Italian youngster Luca Nardi and absurdly double bageled him 6-0 6-0 in under an hour (52 minutes). Not allowing a player to win a single game on clay is extremely impressive, and a testament to how well Mussetti can play on this surface. Interestingly enough, just like Holger Rune, Lorenzo has almost no points to defend other than Hamburg so the opportunity is endless for all the large events on his best surface. He did not make it past the round of 16 in any of last year's clay Masters events or 500 Barcelona and even lost in the first round of the French Open (unlucky draw as it was world number 3 and clay courter Stefanos Tsitsipas). I look forward to seeing Musetti re-write the script and maybe even lift the trophy this week in Monte-Carlo.

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* Originally published on April 14, 2023, by AJ Rosenberg